Was lockdown worth it?

Thursday 7 May 2020

Lockdown will perhaps soon be readjusted (Kosta57)

Lockdown will perhaps soon be readjusted (Kosta57)

 

I am struggling to understand the reasons for lockdown, now it appears our current rules will soon be adjusted. Naturally, by keeping people apart, so the chances of disease transmission decline. That much is clear to anyone. Yet, if as predicted, the Prime Minister decides on Sunday to tell the nation he is relaxing some of the restrictions, my question is very simple. Why did we try lockdown in the first place? What can you scientifically say we achieved?

Lives saved? For sure, even if, at the moment anyway, Britain is the bad boy of Europe.

Economy damaged? For certain. I am no businessman, but a short walk around the empty streets of central London is enough to show the many businesses that will never recover. Their shop fronts may look good right now but how they will tempt the public inside, especially those from foreign lands, should the government allow central London to open, is anyone’s guess. Many will suffer, plenty will go under, and only a few will be near the top. Until this crisis I had not realised how many businesses really are hand-to-mouth.

The situation this morning - 7 May 2020 (courtesy Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University)

The situation this morning – 7 May 2020 (courtesy Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University)

My problem is that the land into which we may soon emerge is the same as the one we left roughly six weeks ago. There is still no vaccine, no magical drug, nor does there look to be sign of either for many months to come. It is possible they will never come at all. Immunity is still not understood, and the herd immunity predicted seems not to have materialised. Testing is still way below sensible levels and, certainly for antibodies, is unreliable. Even antigen tests are not one hundred percent accurate.

And the NHS, the nation’s current sacred cow, has it been protected? If you judge protection simply by the number of beds filled, be that normal inpatient or critical care, the NHS is grossly underutilised, even now. The flagship field hospitals built around the country as part of Project Nightingale, are lying either unused or poorly used. The staff obtained for them were diverted from other duties, plenty volunteered, but are now no longer needed. In private, they tell me of their frustration, although many have pledged not to publicise their exasperation. There are hundreds, nay thousands, of volunteers who stepped forward and who have not been used. There are plenty whose documentation is still being assessed, without any sign of progress. There are many who volunteered on this occasion, who will never volunteer again.

The British public has now become terrified of going near a hospital, as daily it is told that the NHS needs saving. Anyway, the current image is one of hospitals being where folk now go to die. After all, if the figures are to be believed, a third of those being admitted to hospital with Covid-19, will never be going home.  By staying away from hospital, there is a risk that diseases that might be stopped in good time, will be rendered incurable by the delay. The harm being done to the health of the whole population by lockdown may be greater than the benefits gained.

During lockdown the nation has not been well behaved. Herding cats makes it seem too simple. If lockdown can be broken, you can be sure that Brits somewhere are trying, armed with the excuse that they are the exception. They are not, of course, never have been, never will be. However, the implication is that whatever degree of restriction is imposed, a Brit somewhere will attempt to defeat it. It is just the way we are.

Neil Ferguson. Sometimes one makes mistakes that will never be forgotten (Breaking News Today)

Neil Ferguson. Sometimes one makes mistakes that will never be forgotten (Breaking News Today)

When this all began for the United Kingdom, I looked at the Prime Minister’s body language when he appeared on my television. I was as sure as I could be that he only entered lockdown reluctantly. His hand was forced by the dough heads who, over a weekend towards the end of March, insisted on gathering in their thousands when they should have been keeping apart. Yet the Prime Minister was also faced with some stark scientific evidence. This was partly offered by an academic, Neil Ferguson, who one day would be obliged to resign, thanks to being caught breaking lockdown in a secret tryst with a married left-wing activist. I worry that The Guardian newspaper may be right and that the academic may be a sacrificial lamb to divert attention from greater problems that our government finds hard to explain. This does not mean I agree with either his decisions or what he did.

The Prime Minister’s announcement in two days’ time is thus important, as the ceaseless news bulletins and headlines mean the population is now terrified. Radio addicts can listen to news about Covid-19 all day should they wish. Despite the covidiots, who are still coughing, spitting, handshaking and disrupting in the way covidiots do, the streets of London are reminiscent of the 2012 Olympics. Then, the government had the population so petrified of driving through the capital, that those who could, stayed away until the games were over. The Olympic Games were the last time that I, as a central Londoner, had my capital to myself. It was actually a pleasant experience although in those days there was no virus trying to kill me.

Apart from my worry about lockdown, and whether it has all been worth it, I have made a real discovery. That is how to witness a legal document while retaining social distance. The lawyers may be bright, but their profession seems largely inflexible. Persuading a lawyer to change is something I have found difficult. However, it so happened that yesterday I had to have a document witnessed, I was not permitted to use a relative, and was thinking what to do.

You try witnessing a document during a lockdown (Andrea Piacquadio from Pexels)

You try witnessing a document during a lockdown (Andrea Piacquadio from Pexels)

“Could I use video?” I asked my lawyer.

“No,” he replied.

“Email?”

“No.”

“Telephone?”

“No.”

It continued. Basically, a wet signature was the way the lawyer wanted it and nothing else would do.

But I have a charming fellow next door, at least one floor above me, who suns himself on his balcony. His apartment is perfectly positioned, and he benefits hugely on the very frequent occasions during London Lockdown when there has been sun to enjoy.

Yesterday was sunny, so I shouted up, “Would you mind being a witness?”

He shouted down, “Delighted!”

And then the fun began. In practice, it was actually quite simple.

The event took place on the pavement, directly outside my apartment. I had a pen, he had a pen, while on the pavement I positioned a small coffee table and that rarest of items, a small and squidgy bottle of antiseptic hand gel. Alongside the gel I placed the document.

When I stepped forward, he stepped back, and when I stepped back, he stepped forward. Within moments the job was done and there was hand gel to spare by the end.

That, dear lawyers, who may find change so difficult, is how you witness a document and social distance. But witnessing a document is one thing, getting UK back on its feet is another.

I cannot wait to hear the Prime Minister on Sunday.